NC-Gov, NC-Sen: Dole Up Big, Perdue Up Little

SurveyUSA (7/12-14, likely voters) (5/20 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 42 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc.): 54 (50)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

More proof that Dole’s big ad buy had a short-term sugar-shock effect on the race. Dole made up the biggest ground among voters with income under $50,000, going from 14% down to a tie. Any plans for Hagan to hit the airwaves, you might be wondering? Why, yes… the DSCC just announced today that they’ve reserved $6 million of airtime against Dole, starting in mid-September. With Hagan having a good fundraising quarter, she can weigh in with her own money earlier as well.

SurveyUSA (7/12-14, likely voters) (5/20 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 47 (52)

Pat McCrory (R): 46 (45)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

North Carolina continues to have the nation’s tightest governor’s race, as the same sample gives only a tiny edge to Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue. As might be expected, McCrory is up big in the western half of the state (including Charlotte, where he’s mayor); Perdue is up big in the eastern half.

[UPDATE on 7/17: Well, it’s one day later, and Rasmussen just released a poll that almost completely matches SurveyUSA, so we can feel pretty confident about the state of the race right now.

Rasmussen (7/15, likely voters) (6/10, 5/8 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 41 (39, 48)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc.): 53 (53, 47)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

13 thoughts on “NC-Gov, NC-Sen: Dole Up Big, Perdue Up Little”

  1. That’s the largest ad buy in NC history if I’m not mistaken.

    This is going to be a great race.

  2. Gawd Dole is a tool.  Trying to play up to the pro-Helms racist types?

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit…

    Elizabeth Dole Tries to Rename the AIDS Bill After Jesse Helms

    Oh my. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-NC, has officially requested that the “Tom Lantos and Henry J. Hyde United States Global Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Reauthorization Act of 2008” be also named after the late Sen. Jesse Helms, R-NC.

    That is bizarre,” Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., told me this afternoon when I told him this news. “That is absolutely bizarre. The Lantos-Hyde-Helms… the idea that anyone would want to do that is ludicrous…I would try to think of something that would be less appropriate, but even with my disregard for convention it would be hard to do that.”

    Helms, you may recall, opposed funding for AIDS research — even the Ryan White AIDS Act.

    He was not a big fan of the gays, Mr. Helms. Gays were “weak, morally sick wretches,” he said, and in 1988, opposing an AIDS research bill championed by, among others, Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, Helms said, “there is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy.”

  3. SurveyUSA had women at 54% of the population, in 2004 women were 59% of the voting population.

    In 2004 black people represented 26% of the voting population the SurveryUSA poll only had them at 19%.

    So once adjusted for the actually demographic reality of NC Obama, Perdue, and Hagen are all doing slightly better then the poll says.

  5. They released a Pres poll this morning. McCain 45-42.

    In other words, expect their polls on the Governor and Senate races later today.

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